Sunday, March 15, 2009

3 Best-Sellers

Three current bestselling books in the Business/Investing category have important things to say about economics. They say even more when you put their ideas together.

The three books I am looking at, and their key economic ideas, are:

The Great Depression Ahead. Everything in the economy goes in cycles, and looking at these cycles gives you the best chance of long-term economic forecasting. Unfortunately, the forecast is for a depression that starts in 2010 and lasts at least a decade.

The Black Swan. You eventually get in trouble if you use experience or data to predict future events. The momentous events are the ones you can’t predict at all.

The 4-Hour Workweek. The purpose of life is not to maximize your profits, but to maximize your life. Start thinking of ways to shrink your business, cut your living costs, and maximize your free time, and you discover a world of mostly unexplored lifestyle possibilities.

When I put these three ideas together with what is going on this year, I discovered who it will take to lead the economy out of its current recession (or the coming depression, if the forecast in The Great Depression Ahead is correct). The most important people will not be business or political leaders, but will be people who find themselves only partially employed because of the economy. These are the people who are preparing to turn the world upside down in the coming years, though most will not realize that is what they are doing. I came to this conclusion instantly as soon as I put these three books together. It is a process that I am convinced has already begun. I have started to write out the logical connections that brought me to this conclusion. I thought I might post that today, but it is far too much to get through in one day. Over the next few days I will explain some essential background ideas and draw out the logical connections for you.